CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-03-29T18:39:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Mar 31 1500 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 691 from 2014 Mar 24
SOLAR ACTIVITY
---------------
Solar activity was driven by C-class flares from NOAA ARs 2010, 2014 and 2015, from March 24 until March 28. On March 28, NOAA AR 2017 produced an M2.0 flare with peak at 19:18 UT and an M2.6 flare peaking at 23:51 UT. They were associated with two frontsided halo CMEs. The first one with speeds of 412km/s (first seen by LASCO-C2 at 20:00 UT) and the second one 557 km/s (at 23:58 UT). A backsided full halo CME was seen by LASCO-C2 shortly before, at 16:56 UT. NOAA AR 2017 (beta gamma delta magnetic field configuration) released then an X1.0 flare with peak at 17:48 UT on March 29, associated with radio bursts, a full halo CME and an increase in GOES proton fluxes (not passing the threshold). This full halo CME was first seen at 18:12 UT by LASCO-C2. The speeds measured are of 510 km/s. On March 30, NOAA AR released an M2.1 peaking at 11:55 UT. It was associated with a partial halo CME, first visible in the LASCO-C2 field of view at 12:24 UT. The CME had an angular width of a!
bout 170 degrees and a speed of around 500 km/s (as determined by the CACTUS software).

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
---------------------
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet until the arrival of a shock corresponding to a CME from March 23. This occurred on March 25 at 19:25 UT, and geomagnetic conditions reached active levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions were experienced for the rest of the week. The combination of the halo CMEs from March 28 may arrive to the Earth and cause up to minor storm conditions by 1 April around 05:00 UT. The full halo CME from March 29 has an expected arrival time to the Earth of 04:30 UT on April 2. The CME from March 30 had the bulk of the material towards the NW, a glancing blow from this partial halo CME is possible and can be expected early on April 3.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY INDICES
DATE           RC   EISN  10CM   Ak   BKG    M   X
2014 Mar 24   ///    099   159   004   B6.8   0   0   
2014 Mar 25   ///    097   153   009   B5.7   0   0   
2014 Mar 26   121    081   153   012   B5.6   0   0   
2014 Mar 27   121    082   145   005   B5.5   0   0   
2014 Mar 28   ///    085   146   009   B5.0   2   0   
2014 Mar 29   ///    084   143   008   B7.3   0   1   
2014 Mar 30   ///    065   148   006   B8.9   1   0   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# RC   : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)
# EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number
# 10cm : 10.7 cm  radioflux (DRAO, Canada)
# Ak   : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)
# BKG  : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA)
# M,X  : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below (NOAA, USA)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
28  1904  1918 1927 N11W21 M2.0 SN       98/2017      V/2II/2 

28  2344  2351 2358 ////// M2.6          98/2017      II/2 

29  1735  1748 1754 N11W32 X1.0 2B  360  98/2017      III/3II/3 

30  1148  1155 1202 N08W43 M2.1 1N  120  98/2017      III/2II/2 


#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement