CME Scoreboard |
|
Prediction for CME (2014-03-29T18:39:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-03-29T18:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5039/-1 CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-02T04:30Z Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2014 Mar 31 1500 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# WEEK 691 from 2014 Mar 24 SOLAR ACTIVITY --------------- Solar activity was driven by C-class flares from NOAA ARs 2010, 2014 and 2015, from March 24 until March 28. On March 28, NOAA AR 2017 produced an M2.0 flare with peak at 19:18 UT and an M2.6 flare peaking at 23:51 UT. They were associated with two frontsided halo CMEs. The first one with speeds of 412km/s (first seen by LASCO-C2 at 20:00 UT) and the second one 557 km/s (at 23:58 UT). A backsided full halo CME was seen by LASCO-C2 shortly before, at 16:56 UT. NOAA AR 2017 (beta gamma delta magnetic field configuration) released then an X1.0 flare with peak at 17:48 UT on March 29, associated with radio bursts, a full halo CME and an increase in GOES proton fluxes (not passing the threshold). This full halo CME was first seen at 18:12 UT by LASCO-C2. The speeds measured are of 510 km/s. On March 30, NOAA AR released an M2.1 peaking at 11:55 UT. It was associated with a partial halo CME, first visible in the LASCO-C2 field of view at 12:24 UT. The CME had an angular width of a! bout 170 degrees and a speed of around 500 km/s (as determined by the CACTUS software). GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY --------------------- Geomagnetic conditions were quiet until the arrival of a shock corresponding to a CME from March 23. This occurred on March 25 at 19:25 UT, and geomagnetic conditions reached active levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions were experienced for the rest of the week. The combination of the halo CMEs from March 28 may arrive to the Earth and cause up to minor storm conditions by 1 April around 05:00 UT. The full halo CME from March 29 has an expected arrival time to the Earth of 04:30 UT on April 2. The CME from March 30 had the bulk of the material towards the NW, a glancing blow from this partial halo CME is possible and can be expected early on April 3. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- DAILY INDICES DATE RC EISN 10CM Ak BKG M X 2014 Mar 24 /// 099 159 004 B6.8 0 0 2014 Mar 25 /// 097 153 009 B5.7 0 0 2014 Mar 26 121 081 153 012 B5.6 0 0 2014 Mar 27 121 082 145 005 B5.5 0 0 2014 Mar 28 /// 085 146 009 B5.0 2 0 2014 Mar 29 /// 084 143 008 B7.3 0 1 2014 Mar 30 /// 065 148 006 B8.9 1 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # RC : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy) # EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number # 10cm : 10.7 cm radioflux (DRAO, Canada) # Ak : Ak Index Wingst (Germany) # BKG : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA) # M,X : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below (NOAA, USA) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 28 1904 1918 1927 N11W21 M2.0 SN 98/2017 V/2II/2 28 2344 2351 2358 ////// M2.6 98/2017 II/2 29 1735 1748 1754 N11W32 X1.0 2B 360 98/2017 III/3II/3 30 1148 1155 1202 N08W43 M2.1 1N 120 98/2017 III/2II/2 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 37.50 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-03-31T15:00Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy |